A New European

My recent meetings in Moscow and Washington indicate that Russian-Georgian relations have deteriorated to the point where some officials in the Kremlin are seriously looking for a pretext to start a military operation to topple Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Two Moscow insiders – a veteran senior foreign policy adviser who often informally speaks for the Kremlin, and a prominent Duma member who specializes in foregin affairs — said that the February statement by the Kremlin political strategist Gleb Pavlovsky about a possibility of Saakashvili;s assassination is more than a boast. It’s a warning.

“It’s springtime — a time to start a war with Georgia,” said the foreign policy adviser. He specifically mentioned Ossetia, (and not secessionist Abkhazia), as the future flashpoint.

Georgians are persistently irritating Russia by successfully negotiating withdrawal of Russian military bases and appealing to join NATO. The Georgian Parliament is likely to vote to demand withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Abkhazia and Ossetia. Saakashvili wrote to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan asking to “internationalize” peacekeeping operations in Abkhazia and Ossetia.

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Russia today is dead set on preventing Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. The Russian military feels that it is losing face by being continuously squeezed out - first from the Georgian military bases, then from Ossetia and Abkhazia - and eventually, from the dachas and sanatoria along the Black Sea coast. They may be even hopeful for promotions, decorations, and bigger budgets if the next Caucasus war erupts.

Spring is not bringing a sunny political weather to the Caucasus. Georgia will need all the political wisdom and support from friends in Washington and elsewhere as it negotiates the latest Ossetian crisis and the larger Caucasus political minefield.

Eine Lektüre des ganzen Artikel ist mehr als empfehlenswert, da es ganz schön aufzeigt, wie friedliebend des Friedenkanzlers Gazprom ist…